Category Archives: Prospects

Mark Anderson: DJ Davis (CF) Scouting Report

Mark Anderson of BaseballProspectus.com profiled Blue Jays’ centerfield prospect DJ Davis. He has elite speed that could help him develop into 60 defender. If he can improve his reads on balls which he showed he had done at Instructs, he has the potential to be a plus-plus defender. He has plus bat speed and a line drive swing that should result in a lot of doubles and triples. He’ll likely be limited to 10-12 HRs a year but will take a while to develop. His arm strength is average but gets the ball off quickly and accurately.

Davis has the potential to be an All-Star centerfielder who could steal 50-60 bases, hit for average and play plus defence if his raw tools and athleticism develop.

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Kiley McDaniel on Osuna, Smoral at Fall Instructs

Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs had the first of a series of reports on the fall instructional league in his post “Reports From Instructs: Toronto Blue Jays (Pt 1)“. He takes an extended look at Roberto Osuna (a 2011 IFA who reached the college-heavy Northwest League at at age 17) and Matthew Smoral (a 2012 prep pick who dropped from the middle of the 1st-round because of a stress fracture in his foot).

He writes that Osuna was much improved in the 4 months that separated his sightings while he received professional instruction. Though he lacks projection to his already mature frame, McDaniel writes that his stuff would make him the top arm in this year’s prep class if he were eligible. He currently projects to be a #2/3.

Though a little older, the 6’8″ Smoral has a lot more projection left in his frame and could also wind up as a #2/3. He’ll likely add more velocity than Osuna at their peaks but his command and control currently lag behind.

Mark Anderson on Dawel Lugo | Bat has easy plus potential

SS Dawel Lugo – 2011 IFA ($1.3 M) – 12/13/1994 – R/R – 6’0″ 188 lbs.

BLUF: Plus hitter with power projection give him a strong bat-first profile.
Setting the Stage: Lugo was signed by the Blue Jays at the outset of the 2011 international signing period. They gave him a reported $1.3 million signing bonus and he debuted in the Gulf Coast League this year with a .224/.275/.329 line as a 17-year-old.
Scouting Report: The numbers may not support it right now but this scouting report is going to be a glowing one. Lugo’s bat stood out in both games I saw last week. He has plus bat speed, allowing him to drive the ball to all fields with authority. He showed some loft in batting practice and there were hints of that translating in the games. I can see plenty of gap power in his future and the potential to hit 18-20 home runs once he fully matures. While he swings at a lot of pitches, Lugo has tremendous feel for the barrel. He showed an ability to sting a variety of pitches and use the entire field with ease.

The rest of his article, “Youth Movement” is subscriber-only at BaseballProspectus.com.

Lugo in the DPL in 2011:

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgC90ovrF4U]

Arizona Fall League Watch – Oct 12, 2012 – Pillar Steals Home

Salt River 12 – Peoria 9 – Oct 17, 2012

Kevin Pillar and Jake Marisnick got the starts in LF and CF respectively the Salt River Rafters game against Reds super-speedster prospect SS Billy Hamilton and the Peoria Javelinas. Hamilton led the game off with a walk and promptly stole second before scoring on a home run by Seattle’s C Mike Zunino. He would walk and steal second again in the 2nd inning before scoring on a groundout to the pitcher.

Marisnick hit a sacrifice fly for the second out of the 6th before Pillar singled on a groundball to left field to keep the innings alive. After moving to 3rd on another single, Pillar capped off a 5-run inning by stealing home as Tyler Bortnick stole second to take the lead.

Ian Kadish entered the game with a one-run lead in the 7th and gave up just a 2-out groundball single with a popup, fly out, and groundout.

Pillar bunt singled in the 9th to leadoff and later scored. Jake Marisnick grounded out softly to the pitcher to end the game. Marisnick finished 1 for 4 and Kevin Pillar went 3 for 5 raising his average to .385.

Blue Jays’ Rule 5 Timelines – October 2012

Here is a look at the timelines for the Jays’ prospects eligibility for the Rule 5 draft held every December. Players who signed for the first time at 18 or younger are eligible after 5 years with their club; those who signed at 19 or older are eligible after 4 years. The Rule 5 draft is designed to prevent teams from bogarting hordes of high-quality prospects who could otherwise be playing in the MLB.

This list includes 2012 international free agents and amateur draftees who will be first eligible for the Rule 5 in 2015 or 2016. There has been no concerted effort to remove players who are no longer with the organization. If you spot a name specifically, leave it in the comments and they’ll be removed. If a name is missing, same deal.

Name Position Date of Birth Acquired Rule 5 Eligible
Dustin Antolin RHP 8/9/1989 2008 (11) 2012
Markus Brisker RF 8/21/1990 2008 (6) 2012
Michael Crouse RF 11/22/1990 2008 (16) 2012
Brad Glenn RF 4/2/1987 2009 (23) 2012
Ryan Goins SS 2/13/1988 2009 (4) 2012
Yan Gomes C 7/19/1987 2009 (10) 2012
Anthony Gose CF 8/10/1990 2010 Trade 2012
Shawn Griffith RHP 5/24/1987 2009 (37) 2012
Chad Jenkins RHP 12/22/1987 2009 (1) 2012
A.J. Jimenez C 5/1/1990 2008 (9) 2012
Brandon Kaye RHP 8/16/1988 2011 NDFA 2012
Aaron Loup LHP 12/19/1987 2009 (9) 2012
Jack Murphy C 4/6/1988 2009 (31) 2012
Kevin Nolan SS 12/13/1987 2009 (20) 2012
Sean Ochinko DH 10/21/1987 2009 (11) 2012
Gustavo Pierre SS 12/28/1991 2008 NDFA 2012
Carlos Ramirez RF 4/24/1991 2008 NDFA 2012
Ryan Schimpf 2B 3/11/1988 2009 (5) 2012
Egan Smith LHP 3/16/1989 2009 (7) 2012
Ryan Tepera RHP 11/3/1987 2009 (19) 2012
Denny Valdez  RHP 5/8/1990 2008 NDFA 2012
Kenny Wilson CF 1/30/1990 2008 (2) 2012
Tyler Ybarra LHP 12/11/1989 2008 (43) 2012
Matt Abraham SS 1/27/1987 2010 (49) 2013
Danny Barnes RHP 10/21/1989 2010 (35) 2013
Brandon Berl RHP 4/9/1988 2010 (40) 2013
Joe Bowen C 9/25/1987 2010 NDFA 2013
Zack Breault RHP 12/6/1988 2010 NDFA 2013
Julio Carmona RHP 10/10/1990 2009 NDFA 2013
Art Charles 1B 11/10/1990 2010 (20) 2013
Sam Dyson RHP 5/7/1988 2010 (4) 2013
Drew Elliott LHP 8/2/1988 2010 NDFA 2013
Deivy Estrada  RHP 8/22/1992 2009 NDFA 2013
Wes Etheridge RHP 8/12/1984 2010 NDFA 2013
Andy Fermin 3B 7/27/1989 2010 (32) 2013
Christian Frias 2B 7/19/1989 2010 NDFA 2013
Travis Garrett RHP 10/27/1989 2010 (19) 2013
Jesse Hernandez RHP 8/23/1988 2010 NDFA 2013
K.C. Hobson 1B 8/22/1990 2009 (6) 2013
Drew Hutchison RHP 8/22/1990 2009 (15) 2013
Matt Johnson SS 5/26/1988 2010 NDFA 2013
Jonathan Jones CF 8/2/1989 2010 (29) 2013
Marcus Knecht LF 6/21/1990 2010 (3s) 2013
Casey Lawrence RHP 10/28/1987 2010 NDFA 2013
Bryan Longpre RHP 7/13/1987 2010 NDFA 2013
Garrett Maines C 2/7/1987 2010 NDFA 2013
Jake Marisnick CF 3/30/1991 2009 (3) 2013
Dayton Marze RHP 1/1/1989 2010 (14) 2013
Deck McGuire RHP 6/23/1989 2010 (1) 2013
Stephen McQuail LF 6/10/1989 2010 (30) 2013
Ronald Melendez CF 9/29/1989 2010 (24) 2013
Griffin Murphy LHP 1/16/1991 2010 (2) 2013
Bryson Namba 3B 1/31/1991 2009 (12) 2013
Santiago Nessy C 12/8/1992 2009 NDFA 2013
Sean Nolin LHP 12/26/1989 2010 (6) 2013
Drew Permison RHP 2/24/1989 2010 (42) 2013
Tyler Powell RHP 2/16/1989 2010 (34) 2013
Nicholas Purdy RHP 10/2/1989 2010 NDFA 2013
Pierce Rankin C 4/26/1989 2010 (38) 2013
Zak Adams LHP 3/19/1992 2010 (15) 2014
Eric Arce LF 11/29/1991 2011 (25) 2014
Kenen Bailli RF 1/25/1985 2011 NDFA 2014
Nicholas Baligod RF 9/28/1987 2011 (40) 2014
Cody Bartlett SS 7/22/1988 2011 (41) 2014
Jonathon Berti 2B 1/22/1990 2011 (18) 2014
Eli Boike RF 12/26/1987 2011 NDFA 2014
Colby Broussard RHP 5/8/1989 2011 (44) 2014
Eric Brown RHP 2/23/1989 2011 (50) 2014
Philip Brua RHP 4/3/1989 2011 NDFA 2014
Andrew Burns 3B 8/7/1990 2011 (11) 2014
Adonys Cardona RHP 1/16/1994 2010 IFA 2014
George Carroll 1B 4/17/1988 2011 NDFA 2014
Gabriel Cenas 3B 10/16/1993 2010 IFA 2014
Kramer Champlin RHP 3/8/1990 2011 (33) 2014
Taylor Cole RHP 8/20/1989 2011 (29) 2014
Seth Conner 3B 1/29/1992 2010 (41) 2014
Shane Davis LHP 4/19/1988 2011 (42) 2014
Anthony DeSclafani RHP 4/18/1990 2011 (6) 2014
Myles Duvall RHP 4/23/1989 2011 NDFA 2014
Shane Farrell RHP 5/28/1989 2011 (46) 2014
Melvin Garcia CF 9/17/1991 2010 (33) 2014
Angel Gomez RF 1/12/1992 2010 (23) 2014
Christopher Hawkins LF 8/17/1991 2010 (3) 2014
Myles Jaye RHP 12/28/1991 2010 (17) 2014
Tucker Jensen RHP 8/3/1989 2011 NDFA 2014
Ian Kadish RHP 8/29/1988 2011 NDFA 2014
Adaric Kelly RHP 12/1/1992 2010 (28) 2014
Jonathan Lucas RHP 12/12/1987 2011 NDFA 2014
Luis Martin CF 2/12/1994 2010 NDFA 2014
Blake McFarland RHP 2/2/1988 2011 NDFA 2014
Ajay Meyer RHP 7/19/1987 2011 NDFA 2014
Peter Mooney SS 8/19/1990 2011 (21) 2014
Aaron Munoz C 12/24/1988 2011 (34) 2014
Jorge Navarette LHP 9/25/1989 2010a NDFA 2014
Matt Newman LF 9/20/1988 2011 NDFA 2014
Justin Nicolino LHP 11/22/1991 2010 (2) 2014
Shane Opitz SS 1/10/1992 2010 (11) 2014
Kevin Patterson 1B 9/28/1988 2011 (30) 2014
Chris Peters 2B 12/29/1988 2011 NDFA 2014
Kevin Pillar CF 1/4/1989 2011 (32) 2014
Dalton Pompey CF 12/11/1992 2010 (16) 2014
David Rollins LHP 12/21/1989 2011 (24) 2014
Chris Roman RHP 4/22/1989 2011 NDFA 2014
Aaron Sanchez RHP 7/1/1992 2010 (1s) 2014
Chris Schaeffer C 11/19/1987 2011 NDFA 2014
Andrew Sikula RHP 12/21/1988 2011 (36) 2014
John Stilson RHP 7/28/1990 2011 (3) 2014
Kellen Sweeney 3B 9/14/1991 2010 (2s) 2014
Noah Syndergaard RHP 8/29/1992 2010 (1s) 2014
Mitchell Taylor LHP 5/11/1992 2010 (7) 2014
Nico Taylor RF 2/9/1990 2011 (38) 2014
Randall Thompson RHP 5/18/1989 2011 NDFA 2014
Dickie Thon SS 11/16/1991 2010 (5) 2014
Jorge Vega-Rosado SS 12/5/1991 2011 (28) 2014
Ben White RHP 5/10/1989 2011 NDFA 2014
Les Williams RHP 3/2/1989 2011 (37) 2014
Luke Willson 1B 1/15/1990 2011 NDFA 2014
Josh Almonte RF 01/28/1994 2012 (22) 2015
Jacob Anderson RF 11/22/1992 2011 (1s) 2015
Justin Atkinson 3B 7/24/1993 2011 (26) 2015
Alex Azor CF 11/21/1988 2012 (10) 2015
Wilmer Becerra OF 10/1/1994 2011 IFA 2015
Mark Biggs RHP 5/10/1993 2011 (8) 2015
Manuel Cordova RHP 1/17/1995 2011 IFA 2015
Brad Delatte LHP 01/13/1990 2012 (5) 2015
Matthew Dean 3B 12/22/1992 2011 (13) 2015
Daniel Devonshire 1B 03/30/1992 2012 (37) 2015
Tucker Donahue RHP 08/27/1990 2012 (4) 2015
Brady Dragmire RHP 2/5/1993 2011 (17) 2015
Will Dupont 2B 12/01/1993 2012 (16) 2015
Tucker Frawley C 06/01/1989 2012 (8) 2015
Jeremy Gabryszwski RHP 3/16/1993 2011 (2) 2015
Tyler Gonzales RHP 01/22/1993 2012 (1S) 2015
Alonzo Gonzalez LHP 01/15/1992 2012 (18) 2015
Jesus Gonzalez OF 1/11/1995 2011 IFA 2015
Osman Gutierrez RHP 12/15/1994 2011 IFA 2015
Dennis Jones CF 09/04/1992 2012 (20) 2015
Dan Klein C 08/29/1990 2012 (28) 2015
Jairo Labourt LHP 3/7/1994 2011 IFA 2015
Jason Leblebijian SS 05/13/1991 2012 (25) 2015
Jordan Leyland 1B 09/06/1989 2012 (9) 2015
Christian Lopes IF 10/1/1992 2011 (7) 2015
Derrick Loveless CF 3/7/1993 2011 (27) 2015
Dawel Lugo SS 12/13/1994 2011 IFA 2015
Joseph Musgrove RHP 12/4/1992 2011 (1s) 2015
Daniel Norris LHP 4/25/1993 2011 (2) 2015
Roberto Osuna  RHP 2/7/1995 2011 NDFA 2015
Ian Parmley OF 12/19/1989 2012 (7) 2015
Eric Phillips 3B 07/16/1990 2012 (6) 2015
Thomas Robson RHP 6/27/1993 2011 (4) 2015
Jorge Saez C 08/28/1990 2012 (32) 2015
Dwight Smith IF 10/26/1992 2011 (1s) 2015
Marcus Stroman RHP 05/01/1991 2012 (1) 2015
Jesus Tinoco RHP ? 2011 IFA 2015
Alberto Tirado RHP 12/10/1994 2011 IFA 2015
Colton Turner LHP 1/17/1991 2012 (21) 2015
Shaun Valeriote 3B 01/22/1990 2012 (39) 2015
Anthony Alford CF 07/20/1994 2012 (3) 2016
Franklin Barreto SS/CF 1996? 2012 IFA 2016
Ryan Borucki LHP 03/31/1994 2012 (15) 2016
Luis Castro SS ? 2012 IFA 2016
D.J. Davis CF 07/25/1994 2012 (1) 2016
Shane Dawson LHP 09/09/1993 2012 (17) 2016
Andres DeAza OF 11/17/1994 2012 IFA 2016
Chase DeJong RHP 12/29/1993 2012 (2) 2016
Ronniel Demiorizi SS 1995? 2012 IFA 2016
Nathan DeSouza RF 07/13/1994 2012 (26) 2016
Trey Pascazi SS 08/07/1993 2012 (23) 2016
John Silviano C 07/11/1994 2012 (13) 2016
Richard Urena SS 1/26/1996 2012 IFA 2016
Zakery Wasilewski LHP 06/16/1993 2012 (14) 2016

Arizona Fall League Watch – Oct 16, 2012

Phoenix 3 – Salt River 3 (12 inn.) – Oct 16, 2012

Deck McGuire pitched and was lucky to escape his inning having given up just one earned run on 3 hits and a walk. He had one strikeout. Sam Dyson would make an appearance in the top of the 11th striking out Marlins’ prospect Christian Yelich (pre-2012 BA’s #41 prospect) swinging on 4 pitches and Max Stassi looking to end the game (tied) in the middle of the 12th.

Ryan Goins and Sean Ochinko were the lone Blue Jays position players in Tuesday’s game. Ochinko hit an RBI single in the 2nd after Goins moved the runner to second on a groundout. Goins would cash in a run in the 6th on a groundball single to the right side. Goins would finish the game 1 for 5 with a strikeout; Ochinko went 2 for 4 with 2 singles.

Ochinko has been cast as a spare part minor leaguer because he served as the replacement to AJ Jimenez in New Hampshire (AA) after the more notable prospect underwent Tommy John surgery and recently received the assignment to the Arizona Fall League ending speculation that Travis d’Arnaud would be the Jays’ representative at catcher. Ochinko actually demonstrated some Yan Gomes-ian power as the backup catcher hit 9 HRs in 87 games in 2012 and OPS’ed a respectable .765 between Dunedin (A+) and New Hampshire. Considering the catching depth ahead of him, Ochinko will be hard-pressed to earn protection from the upcoming Rule 5 draft. However, it would take a team with very few options at catcher to swallow having him on their active Major League roster for a full season.

If Ochinko remains in the Jays’ system in 2013, it’s unclear where he will spend the season. AJ Jimenez is ahead of him on the depth chart and the team may want him to repeat AA considering his year was cut short by injury.  The Jays’ only other catching prospect who’s playing time warrants concern is in the lower minors and Santiago Nessy will likely rise no higher than Lansing (Lo-A) in 2013 considering his age. Therefore, Ochinko could find himself anywhere between A+ and AAA in 2013.

2012 – # 9 Blue Jays’ Prospect – LHP Matthew Smoral

  • 9) Matthew Smoral – 1st Round Supplemental, 50th overall – LHP – 7/25/1994 – 6’8″ 225 lbs.

Matthew Smoral was expected to go somewhere in the middle of the 1st Round in 2012 before a second stress fracture in his foot required Smoral to undergo season-ending surgery. The Blue Jays were not scared off by the prospect of career-long foot troubles for a big-bodied pitcher and selected him with the 50th overall pick in the supplemental first round. Smoral sports a fastball that sits in the 89-93 mph range and touches as high as 94 mph with good movement. He throws a hard slider in the 81-84 mph range which is considered his out-pitch. He also throws a changeup around the same speed but the pitch lags behind his other offerings.

In an article on MaxPreps.com, Jarrod Ulrey recapped Smoral’s high school career prior to his draft year in 2012:

In early March of his sophomore season at Solon, Matt fractured the same fourth metatarsal on his right foot but elected to rehab the injury and not have surgery.

Last spring for the Comets, he went 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings pitched. Matt pitched Solon to an 8-3 win over Hudson in a Division I district semifinal but did not pitch the next day when Medina beat the Comets 11-10 for a district title.

Last summer, he helped the Midland Redskins capture their third-consecutive Connie Mack World Series championship in Farmington, N.M.

After pitching for the Redskins on Aug. 12, Matt traveled to San Diego to participate in the Perfect Game All-American Classic presented by Rawlings that was held Aug. 14 in Petco Park. He retired the only batter he faced during the game, which has been a prime spot for college and pro recruits since its inception in 2003.

When Smoral suffered his second stress fracture while bending over in a non-baseball setting (a day after a March 26th game in Myrtle Beach), he decided against rehabbing the injury and elected for surgery that should prevent future reoccurrences. The injury ended his Senior year at Solon H.S. with a recovery time of 12 weeks. After his signing with the Jays, he would be assigned to the Lansing Lugnuts 7-day disabled list though he would not see any official game action in 2012.

He did make a start in the Instructional League on October 5th but information on the start is unavailable. He reported that he “felt good and it went great” so there should be no reason he doesn’t report to Spring Training in 2013 ready to begin his journey through the Blue Jays’ ranks.

2013: Look for him to spend 2013 with a short-season team following Extended Spring Training. He will likely spend the year with either Bluefield or Vancouver with the possibility of a cup of coffee with Lansing as the season wanes.

Potential Impact: Smoral is still growing into his 6’8″ body will hopefully find the consistent control/command that has eluded him thus far. When he is on, his stuff can be dominating. His ceiling is a top-of-the-rotation starter but it will take him a number of years to reach it.

Pre-Draft Reports courtesy of Crawfish Boxes’ Subber10:

Perfect Game:

Matthew Smoral is a 2012 LHP with a 6-8 225 lb. frame from Solon, OH who attends Solon HS. XX Tall build, wide hips, narrow upper half with lots of room to grow, young body. Tall balanced delivery, low effort, very loose and free arm, clean arm circle, 3/4’s arm slot, occasionally falls off on release, throws from the 3B side of the rubber and loses angle to his pitches, especially to left handed hitters. 90-93 mph fastball, touched 94, flashes hard boring life at times, good sink at others. Curveball has hard plus spin when thrown hard, will let up on curveball at times, rare change up. Better command of pitches to right handed hitters, tends to pitch passively to left handed hitters. Very high ceiling talent, has all the tools. Good student, verbal commitment to North Carolina. Named to the Perfect Game All American Classic team.

ESPN:

Smoral made just three outings this spring before his season ended due to a stress fracture in his right (and thus landing) foot that occurred when he was pitching on a makeshift mound in a game played on a football field in March. Before that, Smoral had pitched like a potential top-10 overall pick, touching 95, sitting 89-93 with plus life and a hard out-pitch slider, even showing the ability to pitch to his glove side with the fastball.

Baseball America:

Smoral has an imposing presence on the mound, standing 6-foot-8 and 225 pounds. His height along with his low three-quarter arm slot from the left side makes him tough to pick up. His stuff doesn’t make it any easier for hitters. Smoral throws a fastball in the 89-92 mph range and tops out at 94. Smoral also throws a slider in the 81-84 mph range and a changeup with similar velocity. His low arm slot causes him to sometimes get around his slider, but when he stays on top of it, it’s a tight pitch with late break. Like many big pitchers, Smoral is still growing into his frame and learning how to control his delivery. He currently lands a little open and a little stiff, sometimes stumbling off the mound in his follow through. This causes his control to come and go, but when he’s on, his stuff is dominating. Smoral has the athleticism to smooth things out. His father, Steve, was a basketball player at North Carolina State, but Matt is committed to North Carolina.

Video: